Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
